The gross domestic product of the United States should drop by 2.6% in the fourth quarter at an annual rate, and is expected to increase only 0.7% over the full year 2009.
This is a survey of corporate economists association NABE published Monday.
The 50 professional forecasters surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics estimate that on average the U.S. gross domestic product is expected to decline further to 1.3% in the first quarter of 2009.
After the decline in GDP of 0.3% annual rate in third quarter (first estimate by the Department of Commerce), it would mark a decline of the wealth produced by the country for the third quarter in a row, which did not happen in the United States since 1975.
The study predicts a resumption of growth (0.5%) in the second quarter of 2009.
The NABE economists' have become decidedly more negative about economic prospects for the coming quarters due to intensifying tensions on the credit market and evidence of their impact on the real economy," said Chris Varvara, President of the Association, quoted in the press release.
On average, economists surveyed by the study now believe that U.S. growth is projected to reach 0.2% in 2008.
If their forecasts prove accurate, measured growth in 2008 and 2009 will be lower over a period of two years since the early 1980s, noted Mr. Varvara.
However, he added, "inflation should moderate" with the contraction of the economy and maintain oil prices at relatively low levels compared to what they were even a few months ago.
