U.S. unemployment rises to 9.5%

The destruction of jobs has accelerated sharply in the United States, where 467,000 jobs were lost in June, raising the unemployment rate to 9.5%, according to figures adjusted seasonally published Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor.

This net increase in redundancies, after two months of decline, is stronger than analysts predicted, which projected 365,000 jobs destroyed for the month of June.

Rising unemployment is however slightly lower than their expectations (9.6%).

Revisions cumulated figures of the Ministry for the last two months is minimal.

Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, job losses have reached 6.5 million and the unemployment rate increased 4.6 percentage points, "wrote the Ministry to recall the extent of the crisis.

The destruction of jobs have affected all sectors of the economy, with the exception of the education sector and health services, and the "other services" (essentially the dye), which created a total 43,000 jobs.

The number of jobs has sacrificed more than doubled in the services sector, employing more than 85% of the workforce non-farm, to reach 244,000.

It increased by more than 8% in the industry, affected more than two years.

Ministry figures come a week after the Monetary Policy Committee of the U.S. central bank (Fed) had warned that the economy was far from out of trouble despite signs of stabilization and it shows prospect of a recovery in the second half.

The number of unemployed in the United States reached 14.7 million, according to the official ministry. He has more than doubled since the start of the recession.

In addition, nearly 6.4 million people claiming a desire to find a job but not counted in the labor force for various reasons.

The number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) continues to increase and reached 4.4 million.

According to the ministry, nine million people are forced to work part-time option because of economic conditions.

Interest Rate: The Fed wants to calm fears

The leaders of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) are studying the possibility of using the policy statement Wednesday to stop any speculation that they are willing to raise interest rates this year.

Policy makers at the Fed have already indicated their acceptance of increased rates of return on Treasury bonds over the long term, but some fear the odds on a premature rise in interest rates.

In addition, the staff of the Fed focused on the decision of the Bank of Canada to waive any increase in rates until 2010, according to a person aware of this issue, without having come to the conclusion that the ad was effective.

For example, on 21 April, the Bank of Canada reduced its key rate to 0.25%, the lowest in its history, stating that "we can expect the target rate for loans of one day remains at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010, the situation is subject to the outlook for inflation."

For the Fed, an option might be to focus in his statement on Wednesday that the more marked slowdown in the labor market and manufacturing activity in the United States will keep inflation low and temper the recovery, said Michael Feroli, economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York and former member of the Fed.

What is at stake is to keep borrowing costs low enough to promote a sustained recovery without linking the U.S. to a single action plan.

"There are ways (for decision by the Fed) to highlight their expectations for lower interest rates without committing too much," says Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, Jersey City, New Jersey.

The Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues of the Federal Open Market (FOMC) will meet in Washington tomorrow and Wednesday. Economists forecast that they will leave the rate by the Fed in a range from 0 to 0.25%. Policymakers will also discuss any changes to their commitment to purchase up to 300 billion U.S. Treasury bills and 1450 billion U.S. in debt related to real estate.

In its last two statements, the FOMC said that economic conditions are likely to justify the exceptionally low rate of federal funds for a long time. "

The markets have already indicated that they no longer take account of this speech. Treasury bills of two years have slipped since a report by the U.S. government reported on 5 June, the smallest loss of jobs in eight months, the rate of return of 1.14 is good % early yesterday afternoon in New York, compared to 0.91% in early June.

Futures contracts on the U.S. federal funds for March show a yield of 0.705%, which indicates a certain probability of rate hikes by the first quarter of 2010.

If job losses are declining, officials from the Fed, however, have often repeated that the unemployment rate will likely increase in coming months.

U.S. consumers still confident

The index of U.S. consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan rose in June for the fourth month in succession, but a little less than expected by analysts, according to a preliminary estimate published Friday.

The index stood at 69.0 points against 67.8 points in May. Analysts were waiting to 69.5 points.

It is at its highest level since the low peak since the financial crisis of autumn (70.3 points in September 2008).

The final figures for the month of June will be released on June 26.

More to come later...

Home buyer promises surge in April

The promises of purchasing a house in the United States surged in April, posting their third consecutive month of rising and rising well beyond expectations, according to figures released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The index increased by 6.7% compared to March, having already taken 3.2% the previous month and 2.0% in February, according to a news release.

Analysts projected a rise of only 0.5%.

Compared with April 2008, the index recorded an increase of 3.2%.

In January, the promises of purchasing a home had plummeted to their lowest level since the NAR calculates it since 2001.

"The implementation of a tax credit of 8,000 dollars for first-time buyers is starting to take effect on the market," said NAR economist, Lawrence Yun, cited in a statement.

"Since buyers must complete their purchase before November 30 to qualify for this credit, we anticipate an increasing activity in the coming months," he added.

If the market "seems to have already reached its lowest and begin its rebound in some regions," some other areas are stagnant or decline, however, tempers Mr. Yun.

The cost of housing (taking into account prices, interest rates and the purchasing power of households), calculated since 1970, increased by 1.7% in April, said the association.

Record fall in housing prices in the United States

The fall in home prices in the United States has set a new record in the first quarter, reaching 19.1% year on year, according to the Standard and Poor's / Case-Shiller released Tuesday, which measures domestic prices.

Compared to fourth quarter 2008, the drop was 7.5%. During this quarter it was 7.4% compared to the third quarter of 2008.

In the twenty largest cities of the country, the decline was also a record first quarter, reaching 18.7% in one year, and in the ten largest vities, 18.6%, said Standard and Poor's.

The drop in residential real estate market has continued at a steady pace since March, said one of the authors of the study.

The Fed lowered its growth forecast for 2009 and 2010

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a decline in its growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2009 and 2010.

Wednesday 20 May the Fed has lowered the GDP growth for the next three years, although a slight recovery is expected in the second half of 2009. For this year, it anticipates a reduction of between 2% and 1.3%, whereas in January it expected a decline of between 1.3% and 0.5%.

In 2010, the Fed sees GDP growth of 2% to 3%, and in 2011 from 3.5% to 4.8%. Slightly lower than those announced four months ago. The economic outlook of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed (FOMC) meet the diagnosis of its chairman, Ben Bernanke. He foresaw a slow recovery in 2010, but a continuing rise in unemployment across the Atlantic.

The FOMC elaborates figures: the unemployment rate, currently 8.9%, the highest in twenty-five years could reach up to 9.6% in 2009 and still 8.5% in 2011, well over the long term goal of the Fed, between 4.8% and 5.0%. Regarding inflation, the Fed believes that it should be between 0.6% and 0.9% this year. Overall, "most" of the FOMC members believe that the economy should not be in line with its objectives of growth, unemployment and inflation in the long run for five or six years.

U.S.: the restoration of the economy would take 3 or 4 years

The restoration of the American economy would take three or four years, according to the majority of economists surveyed for the monthly survey of Wall Street Journal published Thursday.

48% of forecasters surveyed by the newspaper business, it was not until this period that the first world economy the shortfall caused by the recession began in December 2007.

Only 14% to predict a return to the activity level in December 2007 under one or two years, while 28% believe that the recovery will last five or six years, the newspaper said on its website.

On average, the 52 economists surveyed believe the recession will end in August, a month earlier than they predicted in April.

As for the World economy, it looks like it probably would be a few months later.